Anyway, took a couple minutes to update the table and tweak it a bit.  I added a conversion to “Adjusted Points per Game” so comparison can be made between a team’s Power Score and it’s performance over the entire season.  I also added a Delta score, which is the percentage difference between APPG and PPG – it should say exactly “how hot” or “how cold” a team is at the moment, compared to their performance over the entire season.  High positive figures show a team on fire, and high negative figures show a team potentially in crisis.

Without further ado, the table, after 18 weeks:

• The Fire (not unlike Luciano Emilio) are off the schneid, suddenly finding themselves back in the top-half of the (adjusted) table with an APPG more commensurate with their raw PPG.
• Chivas USA, however, remains mired in an inability to play soccer.  Tricky problem, that.  The only team that’s been worse over the last 5 games than the Goats?  Do I even need to say it?  By the same token, there’s only one team with a worse Delta than the Red-and-White.  Maybe it’s something with those colors?
• I tweeted it on Thursday, but it looks to remain true, the Galaxy are the hottest team in MLS at the moment, winning their last four to jump from also-ran to contenders.  They’re also the team playing farthest above their PPG at the moment (Delta of 27%).  Bizarre, right?

And, finally, the Chart:

That’s all for this week.  See you on the other side of the bar exam (i.e. next month).

Also, note two changes from the last post:  I’ve dropped the 100 multiplier, so Power scores are out of 1, not out of 100, and the average power score on the prior post was incorrect and has been fixed.

I’m leaning toward the second chart, which I think better balances really recent performance with performance over the middle term and the long term.

I think my little bit of analysis from the last post – that Chivas and the Fire are poised for drops down the table thanks to really bad recent performance – still holds.  Another thing I should have mentioned, though, is just how godawful the Red Bulls are – as bad as they are over the season, they’ve been even worse recently, only picking up one point from their last 5 games, and two from their last 10.  Eesh.

Anyway, back to bar study.

Chart #1:  The League Table

Chart #2:  Pace (Points Per Game)

Chart #3:  Power Rankings

Power rankings were derived by adding a team’s points per game for the season to its points per game for the last 5 games played, then doing some rudimentary math to give me a percentage number I thought conveyed relative strength as of today.

And now, the coup de grâce, a game-by-game graphic of the season-to-date! (Which was the initial goal of this entire game-tracking endeavor.)

I’d offer to do some analysis of it all (namely, how Chicago and Chivas USA are trading on early-season success and aren’t playing the best football right now), but I have to go learn about commercial paper and secured transactions and other such legal nonsense so I can pass the bar exam.  Go me!

Also, this post is just an experiment to see how these look.  If you have some comments, I’d love to hear them.

As for now, I’m taking a very, very quick break from studying because this video (via Behind the Badge) is just too good to pass up:  It’s the US MNT on a train from Boston to Philly.  That’s right, soccer + rail = happy AMT.  It’s not too very exciting, but has some good views of NYC and the Delph.

(p.s. Do people ever call it the Delph?  No?  Okay, noted.)

Big question heading in is the goalkeeper situation, as the carousel keeps on spinning.  Whether Crayton or Wicks gets the start (It’s gotta be Crayton, right?  Right?), there’s little doubt that Jakovic will anchor the back line, with Namoff to his right.  I’m intrigued by the battle between Avery John and Marc Burch on the left – I really don’t know who will get the nod.  In the defensive midfield, the obvious question mark is Ben Olsen’s gimpy ankles and hammy.  If he isn’t ready to go, who’s going to line up next to Simms?  It’ll probably be Jacobson, but don’t be surprised to see McTavish take the start.

Don’t think the guessing game ends at the back, though!  Just to keep things short (and coherent-ish):  I think we’ll see Wallace on the left, Quaranta in the 10-slot, and either Pontius or Fred out right, with Moreno and Emilio on the top.  I know that Tommy will want to throw his Best XI out to face the best record in MLS – and that has to mean Christian Gomez – but hear me out.  That attacking lineup gives us our best 90 minutes.  Gomez has been more effective in a substitute’s role, coming in at the hour mark to run against a fatigued defense, already run ragged by United’s young legs, and Soehn has shown some willingness to hold Gomez until the game is ready for him (like against Dallas).  I recognize that the challenge posed by Chivas USA is much different – and much harder – than the one posed by FC Dallas.  And I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Gomez out there tonight.  But to me, right now, Tino, Jamie, and Luci are the most important cogs at the top of the offense right now, and that’s where they need to be.  We just have the enviable problem of having too many bodies to fit on the field.  I love that we get to play this game this year, and it doesn’t involve the possibility of Rod Dyachenko seeing the pitch.

So, just to boil all the discussion down to simple ASCI-ish form:

———-Crayton———-

Namoff–Jakovic–John

—–Simms—–Olsen—–

Pontius————Wallace

———-Quaranta———

—–Emilio—–Moreno—–

Subs:  Wicks (GK), Gomez*, Fred*, Jacobson*, McTavish, Burch, Janicki

So, what’s going to happen?  Sasha Kljestan is out on yellow accumulation, which certainly isn’t a bad thing for the Black-and-Red.  But given the team’s styles, this match has the potential to be a lesser version of the first leg of the Barcelona-Chelsea UEFA Champions League semifinal at the Camp Nou.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see United control upwards of 60% of the possession while Chivas plays a game of bunker and counter.

As for the result?  I’m an unabashed homer, and I think United pulls out the win.  I think the boys in black do the unthinkable and unlock the Chivas defense in the first half.  We’ll probably have one lapse at the back and allow a goal in, but I not before we net a second while Chivas pushes forward early in the second stanza.

Final:  Chivas USA 1 – 2 D.C. United

How else could it be?  South American and European soccer leagues famously employ a system of promotion and relegation – if you finish at the bottom of the table, pack your bags for a lower, and less-profitable, league.  Once you prove yourself in the lower divisions, you can work your way back up to the big stage.  The reason they can do this is in their league structures:  The Barclays Premier League is no more than the sum of its parts: it consists of whichever 20 clubs are in it during a given season.  That used to be the case with American leagues, but it holds much less true now, with the advent of the franchising system.  Our very nomenclature betrays this idea – we frequently refer to teams as franchises, while across the pond, they’re always clubs.  Here, the two ways a city can join a league – including Major League Soccer – are to lure a franchise to pick up and move, or to pay a franchise fee to land an expansion team.  In Europe, you can buy your way to the top division, but at least in recent years, you have to do that by putting a competitive side on the pitch, not by buying a franchise from the league.

Whatever the merits of each system, the irony here is pretty clear:  The US, purported home of capitalism and defenders against the Great And Many Evils of Socialism, is all about parity and an even playing field, while Those God Damned Pinko Communists in Europe have a far more meritocratic system in place.  It’s also true for transportation systems (if you’ll indulge me a small stretch).  Over here, we have been historically reluctant to subsidize public transit, but incredibly zealous in our support of highways.  Never mind the fact that it’s all government spending.  We’ve treated the two modes very differently, promoting highways with federal monies by more than 5-to-1 over rail and other transit.  If merits were all there were, this couldn’t have happened – transit generally moves more people over farther distances with less impact on the environment and for less money than roads.  We all know about the passenger rail network in Europe, where they’ve spent money on roads and rails in a more meritocratic fashion.

There is a difference, of course, between transportation and sports.  As one of Avent’s commenters points out, meritocracy isn’t the only goal of American sports – at least not on the level of the playing surface; entertainment is there, too.  And parity creates some really compelling entertainment, as watching the ongoing NBA and NHL playoffs demonstrates.  (Lakers-Rockets?  Pens-Caps?  Sign me up!)  I’m perfectly willing to accept this.  Especially if it means that my teams can work their way from cellar-dwellers to campeones in something less than a lifetime.  It absolutely changes the dynamics of the game, but ultimately, every team’s long-term goal is to win championships; what the draft does is to create another means to that end.  Transportation policy, naturally, doesn’t have the secondary purpose of entertaining us.  The transportation network should move people in the best, fastest, greenest fashion possible, and the American system currently fails to do this, and it is our failure to install a more meritocratic method that is to blame.

So, I ended up making this about transportation (and soccer), anyway.  Good on me.

But one should be clear that nobody lives in Washington, or even Manhattan, without ever using a car. I don’t own a car. But Washington Post superstar blogger Ezra Klein does. And last weekend he and I drove in his car to Costco where we bought supplies for some mass weekend grilling. I take cabs sometimes. And I’ve been known to rock a Zipcar. There salient thing about my life, and about Washington DC, isn’t so much that I don’t own a car as it is that even if I did own a car I wouldn’t drive it very much. It doesn’t really make sense to drive from my house to my office, and even if it did make sense it would be an extremely short trip. The big difference between owning a car and not owning a car under these circumstances is really economic rather than environmental. By not buying a car, I save a lot of money.

…

In environmental terms, however, the crucial distinction is actually how much gas is burnedrather than whether or not one reaches a pristine state of carlessness. If someone who’s currently driving 300 miles a week to drive back and forth from Dale City to downtown Washington starts driving to a nearby commuter rail station instead, that will be a substantial reduction in pollution, notwithstanding the fact that he’d still be suburban car owner. Indeed, the reduction involved would be much larger than the reduction involved in someone like Ezra—who owns a car, but doesn’t commute in his car regularly—went “car-free.

I haven’t owned a car since I moved to DC for school almost three years ago.  Mostly because I haven’t needed one, and as Yglesias says, it’s just too damn expensive – gas, maintenance, insurance, parking.  That doesn’t mean I don’t take cabs, use Zipcar, or borrow my roommate’s car when I need to.

Regardless, it’s not the number of people who have cars that matters, but the number of vehicle miles travelled (VMT).  Sure, if a lot of people gave up their cars, VMT would plummet, but something more realistic is to develop more walkable and bike-able areas and to build less parking and to charge market rates on highways in order to discourage driving and promote other modes of transportation like transit.  I think car free might be a neat aspiration, but it’s the end, not the means, and right now, the means are more important.

But it’s not all rosy. United has had to score in second half stoppage time several times this year to salvage points, and they’ve got more ties than wins, and they’re goal differential is a scant +2.  Still, I’m incredibly happy with this team, and for a few different reasons.

First, this year seems to be the first of what I think will be two “overlap” years where we shift from the veteran leadership of Ben Olsen, Christian Gomez, and Jaime Moreno to younger talent.  Obviously youth has been a theme this year, with Rodney Wallace and Chris Pontius running wild on either flank (or up top, or in the back…) and the likes of Brandon Barklage, Milos Kocic, and Andrew Jacobsen making appearances of their own.

courtesy of BehindTheBadge.com

Although I didn’t get to see all of last weekends game against Toronto FC due to a pre-planned trip out into the woods of Levels, West Virginia.  But I got to read about it and watch the highlights, and as far as I can tell, the game was a display of exactly what this team has been about so far this year.

United controlled play for the first 45 minutes, but only had one goal to show for it after squandering several chances.  That goal, fittingly enough, came from a new signing for this year, Ange N’Silu, making his first start for the Capital Club.  After the break, United suffered its customary defensive lapse, allowing Dwayne DeRosario to poke the ball over and around two United players and into the net before conceding on a set piece.  This was followed by a D.C. goal set up by rookie Rodney Wallace and finished by rookie Chris Pontius, but with a brilliant dummy played by Jaime Moreno.  In the jubilation after tying it up, United let DeRo put Toronto ahead once again before Moreno converted an equalizing penalty to secure the draw.

This team has quality when they want to.  They’ve dominated several opponents for long stretches.  Sitting with the Barras, it’s gotten to the point during some games that I want to hear them break out the Ole‘s to dig at the other team.  We’re still looking for more consistency on our finishing, though.  While we lead the league in goals scored, we could have a lot more with the way we’ve played.

This team is deep, too.  They’ve had a different starting XI for almost every game this season, and we’ve played well regardless.  People are contributing when they come in, whether they start on the pitch or on the pine.  Big contributions are coming from rookies, veterans, and everybody in between.  For the first time in a long time, it seems like United has interchangeable parts and some real competition for playing time.

Nonetheless, the team has yet to play a complete 90 minutes.  They almost always have at least one disastrous breakdown defensively.  Ball-watching, trying to dribble out of our own box through three guys, not communicating – whatever form it takes, we’re still making really bad mistakes and conceding goals as a result.  United could very well be even with Chivas USA right now, but mental lapses have cost them several points.

These guys can fight back, though.  They fought back to erase two deficits against TFC last weekend, and they fought back against New England and at Giants Stadium to take points when things looked hopeless.  That kind of tenacity is what was missing last year, when most of these ties would have ended up in the loss column.  Everybody it seems is fighting for the shirt in a way they didn’t last year.  I don’t know if it’s the departure of Marcelo Gallardo or the return of Ben Olsen or what, but we’re winning balls we didn’t win last year, and it’s starting to add up to good things.

What I’m getting at through this rambling mess of a post is, I’m optimistic about this team.  I really am.  They’ve already surpassed a lot of my expectations for this year – I was hoping to be in contention for a playoff spot, not leading the charge eight weeks in.  Obviously, they have room to improve, and that’s part of why I’m excited.  I think this team is going to grow up right in front of us.  Pontius is getting more clever by the week, and Wallace is very quickly learning how to take on defenders.  Dejan Jakovic is looking like he plans to stay at the center of the defense for a long time, and even if he doesn’t, Janicki will be there to step in.  Avery John brings more experience to the back line.  And, honestly, the goalkeeper position is vastly improved over this time last year.  (Though in all honesty, I certainly wouldn’t mind an upgrade there – Marcus Hahnemann, anybody?)

I think this team has a chance to be something special a lot quicker than we might have thought at the beginning of the season.  Maybe not this year, but if we’re not vying for serious silverware in the next couple years, I will be disappointed.

Another problem with Culturegeist, I think, was that it was both overinclusive and underinclusive.  (Yeah, I know – definitely a law student.)  It was focused broadly on “pop culture,” which included pretty much whatever Juice and I wanted to write on.  We thought it would be freeing, but in my own mind, I ultimately defined pop culture by what it wasn’t – it wasn’t policy, and it wasn’t sports.  Since I didn’t have time to do things like go to movies or listen to new music or watch TV, I ended up just blogging on the internet.  Which was cool, but not cool enough to hold my attention.

Fast forward to now, and my obsessions are – strangely – urban policy, and soccer.  Knowing that, like all bloggers, I am inherently self-centered, these obsessions tend to focus largely on my adopted hometown of Washington, D.C.  Luckily, the District is home to lots and lots of great urban policy and transportation bloggers, as well as the most decorated team in Major League Soccer history.  (That’d be D.C. United.)  So that works out well for me.

So, this is the place where you can find me writing about two seemingly unrelated topics.  At least for as long as I can keep myself motivated to do it.  Vamos.